A case study in model selection for policy engineering

Abstract

The progress of containers through customs is more often an exercise in negotiation rather than a structured queuing process. As soon as a regulatory process involves negotiation, corruption becomes a factor. Studies by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and other organizations reveal that customs corruption is not easily combated by policy changes. Simulation of potential reform policies in the maritime customs context can provide insights for decision makers. In this paper we present a work-in-progress case study of simulation technique selection for modelling social complexity in the domain of maritime customs. We give evidence (1) to the applicability of a methodological approach that includes evaluation and reasoned selection of a modelling paradigm, and (2) to the applicability of agent-based simulation.