Abstract:
We investigate the relationship between the fundamental and the transitory variance. We study how the transitory variance deviates from the fundamental variance. We use the Gonzalo and Granger (1995) permanent-temporary approach to decompose the variance common factor into a transitory and a permanent component. We find that the midquote returns variance contributes by about 64 % of the common variance factor against 36 % by the trade returns variance. Furthermore, inserting the ratio of volume expectation to duration expectation in the ARMA model and the vector error correction (VEC) model, we find that the short-term variance increases (decreases) when more (less) than 1 unit share is traded for 1 unit time.
