Development of a demand uncertainty-based model to estimate network reliability

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dc.contributor.author El Khoury, John
dc.contributor.author Sobh, Ali Soltani
dc.contributor.author Fishelson, James
dc.contributor.author Heaslip, Kevin
dc.date.accessioned 2017-07-21T08:53:28Z
dc.date.available 2017-07-21T08:53:28Z
dc.date.issued 2017-07-21
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10725/5941
dc.description.abstract This paper provides a discussion on network reliability, which is a subset of resilience. Past research shows how better understanding reliability and identifying ways to improve it can help a system’s response to a disaster, both in the annealing and recovery stages of the four-step resiliency cycle. This study seeks to develop a reliability model that also considers uncertainty. The model estimates reliability for three performance functions (travel time, flow, and consumer surplus), and accounts for uncertainties in both reductions in link-capacity and consumer demand in response to a perturbation/disaster. The model is coded in MATLAB and a numerical example is shown, complete with sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The results show that this model provides accurate predictions of the expected function of the system. Particularly in comparison to those of the deterministic scenarios, the scenarios incorporating uncertainty yield far superior results. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Transportation Research Board en_US
dc.title Development of a demand uncertainty-based model to estimate network reliability en_US
dc.type Conference Paper / Proceeding en_US
dc.author.school SOE en_US
dc.author.idnumber 200103005 en_US
dc.author.department Civil Engineering en_US
dc.description.embargo N/A en_US
dc.keywords Consumers surplus en_US
dc.keywords Disaster preparedness en_US
dc.keywords Reliability (Statistics) en_US
dc.keywords Traffic flow en_US
dc.keywords Travel time en_US
dc.keywords Uncertainty en_US
dc.keywords Network analysis (Planning) en_US
dc.identifier.ctation Sobh, A. S., Fishelson, J., Heaslip, K., & El Khoury, J. (2012). Development of a Demand Uncertainty-Based Model to Estimate Network Reliability (No. 12-3436). en_US
dc.author.email john.khoury@lau.edu.lb en_US
dc.conference.date 22-1-2012 to 26-1-2012 en_US
dc.conference.place Washington DC en_US
dc.conference.title Transportation Research Board 91st Annual Meeting en_US
dc.identifier.tou http://libraries.lau.edu.lb/research/laur/terms-of-use/articles.php en_US
dc.identifier.url https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=1130289 en_US
dc.author.affiliation Lebanese American University en_US

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