Benefit and risk analysis of an automatic meter reading system for electricité du Liban

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dc.contributor.author Ghajar, Raymond F.
dc.date.accessioned 2017-04-28T08:25:23Z
dc.date.available 2017-04-28T08:25:23Z
dc.date.copyright 2012 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1710-2243 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10725/5557
dc.description.abstract This paper summarizes the benefit and risk analysis of a study for modernizing the electricity metering, billing and revenue collection systems for ´Electricit´e du Liban, the national power company of Lebanon. A cost/benefit analysis of the modernized system shows that the system has a payback period of 3.05 years. Like all economic evaluations, there are uncertainties associated with the estimated costs and benefits which could increase the value of the payback period. The purpose of this paper is to identify the im- portant risks and other uncertainties that could affect the economic feasibility of the project and assess the potential impacts of these uncertainties. To achieve this objective, a Monte-Carlo type analysis is employed and a distribution of the expected payback period is determined. The benefits are modelled in two ways, using triangular and uniform distributions, while the costs are modelled using uni- form distributions only. The choice of triangular distribution shows confidence in the initial estimates whereas using a uniform distri- bution implies that the variables could deviate substantially from the initial estimates. The payback period determined from both models is around 3 years (3.18 years when all input variables are modelled using uniform distributions, and 3.12 years when uniform distributions are used for costs and triangular distributions are used for benefits) with a maximum range of 2.2–4.7 years. The results of the risk analysis also indicate that the benefits from an aggressive revenue recovery process (identifying and reducing fraud and theft) have the most influence on reducing the project payback period. In summary, this paper shows that the proposed modernization project is economically feasible. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.title Benefit and risk analysis of an automatic meter reading system for electricité du Liban en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.description.version Published en_US
dc.author.school SOE en_US
dc.author.idnumber 199590160 en_US
dc.author.department Electrical And Computer Engineering en_US
dc.description.embargo N/A en_US
dc.relation.journal International Journal of Power and Energy Systems en_US
dc.journal.volume 32 en_US
dc.journal.issue 1 en_US
dc.identifier.doi 10.2316/Journal.203.2012.1.203-3654 en_US
dc.identifier.ctation Ghajar, R. F. (2012). Benefit and Risk Analysis of an Automatic Meter Reading System for Électricité du Liban. International Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 32(1), 1. en_US
dc.author.email rghajar@lau.edu.lb en_US
dc.identifier.tou http://libraries.lau.edu.lb/research/laur/terms-of-use/articles.php en_US
dc.identifier.url http://www.actapress.com/Abstract.aspx?paperId=42765 en_US
dc.orcid.id https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0630-8140 en_US
dc.author.affiliation Lebanese American University en_US

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