The rapid rise of the Islamic state in Syria. (c2016)

Abstract

This thesis discusses the factors that have led to the rapid rise of the Islamic State in Syria. Employing a case study methodology, it argues that the emergence and consolidation of the Islamic State in Syria are to be attributed to the following factors: state fragmentation, identity politics, and shifts in the regional balance of power coupled with a power vacuum in the Middle East. By 2014, these three factors that cut across the regional-domestic nexus have converged, facilitating the emergence of the Islamic State in Syria. Against this background, the thesis explores the dynamics of sectarian polarization between 2004 and 2014 in Syria, and the extent to which regional dynamics have shaped such dynamics. More specifically, it shows how broader rivalries coupled with the Syrian state’s politics of divide and rule have throughout the years exacerbated intra-Syrian divisions and contributed to their ‘sectarianization’. The events of the Arab Spring in 2011 have however constituted the main spark that led to the outbreak of sectarian violence in Syria pitting various factions against each other and accelerating the collapse of state legitimacy primarily in eastern Sunni-dominated areas. In this context, the Islamic State has established itself in areas that have suffered from the disengagement of the state and that have been subjected to societal and economic marginalization. The thesis further demonstrates how inter-state rivalries and weak regional structures in the Middle East have led to a state of regional unbalances. The lack of regional consensus over the prioritization of the Islamic State as a primary threat and the failing role of the Arab League in the uprisings have contributed to deepening the power vacuum that the Islamic State has conveniently and rapidly filled in Syria, presenting itself as a powerful non-state actor against a failing state and a dysfunctional regional order.