Evaluation of transportation network reliability during unexpected events with multiple uncertainties

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dc.contributor.author El Khoury, John
dc.contributor.author Soltani-Sobh, Ali
dc.contributor.author Heaslip, Kevin
dc.contributor.author Stevanovic, Aleksandar
dc.contributor.author Song, Ziqi
dc.date.accessioned 2016-10-24T12:27:08Z
dc.date.available 2016-10-24T12:27:08Z
dc.date.copyright 2016 en_US
dc.date.issued 2016-10-24
dc.identifier.issn 2212-4209 en_US
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10725/4665
dc.description.abstract Measuring transportation network reliability in destabilizing events is a complex task because an accurate modeling requires the inclusion of uncertainty in both the infrastructure and the users' behavior. This paper presents an approach for evaluating the performance reliability, considering the uncertainty in both demand and supply sides of the road network due to an unexpected event. These uncertainties are likely due to the effect of natural disasters on road networks. On the supply side, in addition to link capacity, environment parameters of roads, which indirectly influence parameters of link travel time, are degraded after disasters. Road environment parameters, such as visibility, geometric, pavement condition, and safety elements, impact road capacity by a perceived increased cost or inability to travel. A generalized link travel cost is suggested to capture these effects. On the demand side, elastic demand is modeled with lognormal distribution and a logit-based stochastic user equilibrium is formulated to presents the traveler's uncertain behavior in route choice. In this study, the first order second moment reliability method is used to evaluate network reliability. This paper presents a numerical example that shows the result of ignoring uncertainties after a disaster is overestimated. Also, it was observed that increasing variation of demand and supply decreases the network performance and network reliability, and the increasing knowledge of the user in route choice behavior increases the network efficiency. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.title Evaluation of transportation network reliability during unexpected events with multiple uncertainties en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.description.version Published en_US
dc.author.school SOE en_US
dc.author.idnumber 200103005 en_US
dc.author.department Civil Engineering en_US
dc.description.embargo N/A en_US
dc.relation.journal International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction en_US
dc.journal.volume 17 en_US
dc.article.pages 128-136 en_US
dc.keywords Transportation network disruption en_US
dc.keywords Network resiliency en_US
dc.keywords Network reliability en_US
dc.keywords Demand uncertainty en_US
dc.keywords Supply uncertainty en_US
dc.keywords Stochastic traffic assignment en_US
dc.identifier.doi http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.04.011 en_US
dc.identifier.ctation Soltani-Sobh, A., Heaslip, K., Stevanovic, A., El Khoury, J., & Song, Z. (2016). Evaluation of transportation network reliability during unexpected events with multiple uncertainties. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 17, 128-136. en_US
dc.author.email john.khoury@lau.edu.lb en_US
dc.identifier.tou http://libraries.lau.edu.lb/research/laur/terms-of-use/articles.php en_US
dc.identifier.url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420915302168 en_US

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