Structural Equation Modeling in Tourism Demand Forecasting

Abstract

This paper reviews prior applications of structural equation modeling to tourism demand forecasting in seven prominent tourism and service journals over a twelve-year period, 1998-2009. Having identified the applications over time at both the individual and aggregate demand levels, this paper discusses essential methodological issues related to structural equation modeling as it applies to tourism demand modeling. It then assesses the quality of previous applications in terms of six methodological issues: (1) data characteristics and sample size; (2) model identification; (3) overall model fit; (4) reliability and validity; (5) model re-specification; and (6) reporting. Based on this analysis, the discussion identifies several methodological problems in the use of SEM in tourism demand modeling and suggests specific avenues for improvement