Lebanon. (c1997)

Abstract

The following research project is intended to evaluate the prospects of the Lebanese capital market playing a role on a regional level. The analysis is based on many research papers done by leading international investment firms, in addition to local economic and investment research. The statistics used are of varying levels of accuracy, and therefore, much data have been used solely to make inferences on general economic and monetary trends affecting the Lebanese capital market. This paper is divided into five parts. Part four comprises the bulk of the analysis, and highlights Lebanon's main economic and financial strengths and weaknesses, in light of their impact on the capital market, along with the regional opportunities and threats influencing the evolution of this market. The first part gives the reader a general background on Lebanon's economic and financial conditions prior to 1975. The second part assesses the economic and financial damage inflicted on Lebanon during 15 years of civil war. The third part profiles the main pre-requisites for a successful capital market. Lastly, the fifth part provides a conclusion as to the chances of the Lebanese capital market becoming one of the region's leading markets. The reader is left with a summary of factors, both positively and negatively affecting the evolution of the Lebanese capital market into a regional market. Recommendations to remedy some of Lebanon's economic, monetary and fiscal weaknesses are a vital outcome of this research effort, and are included in the last section. While constructing the above analysis, many financial experts were interviewed, giving this paper more depth and a clearer direction. However, a true evaluation of economic and capital market trends requires much more extensive research, and the adoption of quantitative models, which are beyond the purpose of this research project.