A Neo-Classical Realist Analysis of Turkish Foreign Policy Towards the Caucasus

Abstract

Turkish foreign policy has been at the forefront of diplomatic and geopolitical alterations as Ankara has established itself as a regional power over the past decades. Perhaps changes within the foreign policy behavior and output of Ankara have deeply affected its geopolitical neighbors Starting from its isolationism in the Ataturk and Inonu eras to the liberalization of its diplomacy during the Menderes era, followed by military rule and the rise of Islamism, Ankara has faced complicated challenges and difficulties in maneuvering these changes. The Caucasus represents an important geopolitical arena for the Turkish Republic. Regardless of the pragmatic gains, Ankara also has historical, especially Ottoman ties to the region, specifically with Armenia, which used to be part of the Empire and its people called the Armenian Millet. Azerbaijanis are ethnically tied to Turks, as represented by the contemporary political conception tying Turkey with Azerbaijan as “One Nation, Two States” The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict takes center stage in the foreign policies of Armenia and Azerbaijan vis-à-vis each other. Turkey, as a regional power, has taken various stances in approaching this matter, perhaps trying to appear as a neutral mediator. This study employs the Neo-classical Realist Model to comparatively study how Ankara has conducted its foreign policy with Armenia and Azerbaijan, tackling the changes and historical nostalgias involved in the behavior and nature of these foreign policy maneuverings.