External dynamics of democratization and the Arab Spring. (c2013)

Abstract

The Arab uprisings have unleashed a wave of authoritarian regime breakdowns in a number of Arab states. Students of Arab politics are consequently examining how the Arab world fits with existing democratic transition paradigms. The main causal variables used in these paradigms pertain to domestic dynamics, however. Yet post authoritarian regime breakdown dynamics in the Arab world underscore the role of external variables in subsequent democratic transitions. Taking Libya and Bahrain as case studies, this thesis unpacks the role of these external variables. It takes external dynamics as the independent variable and, concomitantly, regime breakdown or maintenance as the dependent variable. A number of indicators are operationalized in a comparative examination of the two cases. The thesis argues that external dynamics are a double-edged sword: they play a determining role in Arab Spring uprisings, either in the direction of authoritarian regime breakdown or persistence.