Abstract:
Sectarian contention has shaped Middle Eastern politics for centuries, in addition to the historic grievances over the right to leadership succession and power. It has been extended to contemporary disputes that have deepened economic, social, and political rivalry among sectarian communities in the region. The current Saudi-Iranian standoff is among the most serious divisions, prompting each side to assert regional control and influence through proxies. The outcome has been a raging and protracted social conflict, expanding across multiple countries. This thesis maps existing sectarian conflict drivers within the context of Azar’s Protracted Social Conflict (PSC). It conducts a Transnational Conflict analysis (TNC) to reveal the multi-level drivers rooted in contemporary Sunni-Shia sectarian divide. The different TNC levels are closely examined in light of transnational proxy armed actors (Hezbollah, Islamic State, and Qaeda) and intra-state national actors (in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen). Particular examination focuses on Velayat-e faqih as an ideological catalyst insinuating a disruption of the traditional Middle Eastern Sunni-dominant balance of power. This thesis seeks to identify the root causes of the sectarian-based PSC and to explore potential mitigation propositions.
