Effect of gasoline prices on car fuel efficiency

Abstract

This paper explores how gasoline prices affect the sales of new and used cars in Lebanon. Using a rich dataset on monthly imported cars from 2000 to 2016, a vector autoregressive analysis is used to model different consumer choices between fuel-efficient cars, midsize cars, and fuel-inefficient cars. We report the first empirical evidence on this question from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using individual automobile data. We use within sample and out-of-sample tests to examine whether gasoline prices influence the sale of fuel-efficient cars. Our results show evidence against the hypothesis that rising gasoline prices shift consumers’ demand toward the most fuel-efficient cars.